Heart Attack
Risk Calculator

About the Heart Attack Risk Calculator

This calculator estimates your coronary heart disease (CHD) risk — the closest published validated estimate of heart attack probability using the CHD sub-model from the 2023 AHA PREVENT equations (Khan SS et al., Circulation 2024;149:430–449). CHD is defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction (heart attack) plus fatal coronary heart disease events.

Unlike the basic ASCVD calculator which groups heart attack and stroke together, this page separates them — showing your CHD risk (heart attack) and stroke risk independently, alongside the combined ASCVD figure, for both 10-year and 30-year horizons.

How to Use the Heart Attack Risk Calculator

Enter your values from a recent physical exam and blood test. This tool requires eGFR (kidney function) in addition to the standard cholesterol and blood pressure inputs, because eGFR is part of the validated PREVENT equations. If you don't have your eGFR, a value of 90 represents normal kidney function for most healthy adults.

The family history question asks about a first-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) who had a heart attack before age 55 if male or before age 65 if female. This is not part of the PREVENT equation, but is a clinically important risk-enhancing factor under 2019 ACC/AHA guidelines — your results will flag it with a note for your doctor discussion.

Heart Attack Risk vs. ASCVD Risk vs. Total CVD Risk

These three terms are often confused. Here is how they nest inside each other:

• CHD risk (this calculator's headline) = nonfatal heart attack + fatal coronary heart disease. The narrowest and most specific estimate of "heart attack" risk.
• ASCVD risk = CHD + stroke. The number your doctor uses for statin decisions. Shown on this page as a combined figure.
• Total CVD risk = ASCVD + heart failure. The broadest measure, and the headline number on the PREVENT Calculator.

Smoking and cholesterol drive CHD risk more strongly than stroke. High blood pressure drives stroke risk more strongly than CHD. This is why showing them separately as this calculator does gives a more actionable picture than a single blended number.

What Is My Risk of Having a Heart Attack?

Your personal heart attack risk depends on a combination of modifiable and non-modifiable factors. This calculator uses the CHD (coronary heart disease) model from the 2023 AHA PREVENT equations to give you a personalized percentage — your probability of experiencing a nonfatal heart attack or fatal coronary event over the next 10 years.

The key inputs that most influence your heart attack risk are, in rough order of impact for most patients:

1. Age and sex — Heart attack risk roughly doubles with each decade. Men face higher CHD risk than women at every age until menopause, after which the gap narrows significantly. Women often experience different symptoms than men — take this quiz if you're unsure.
2. Smoking — The single largest modifiable risk factor in the PREVENT CHD model. Current smokers have dramatically higher coronary event rates than non-smokers, independent of all other factors.
3. Cholesterol (non-HDL) — High non-HDL cholesterol is the primary driver of atherosclerotic plaque in coronary arteries. The PREVENT equations use non-HDL rather than LDL because it captures all atherogenic particles.
4. Blood pressure — Both the level and treatment status matter. The PREVENT CHD model treats medicated and unmedicated SBP separately.
5. Diabetes — Roughly doubles CHD risk. Diabetes accelerates atherosclerosis through multiple pathways including inflammation and endothelial dysfunction.
6. Kidney function (eGFR) — Reduced eGFR is an independent predictor of coronary events, included as a direct input in the PREVENT equations.

Heart Attack Risk by Age: What to Expect

Heart attack risk increases substantially with age, but age alone is not destiny. Here is a general picture of how 10-year CHD risk changes across age groups for a non-smoking male with otherwise average risk factors (SBP 125 mmHg, total cholesterol 200 mg/dL, HDL 50 mg/dL, no diabetes, no medications, eGFR 90, BMI 27):

• Age 30–39: Typically 1–3% — very low absolute risk even with some risk factors present. This is why the 30-year risk estimate from this calculator is particularly valuable for younger adults.
• Age 40–49: Typically 3–7% — risk enters the borderline-to-intermediate range for men with multiple risk factors. A critical decade for preventive intervention.
• Age 50–59: 5–12% — most men with at least one risk factor enter intermediate range. Women's risk accelerates post-menopause during this decade. Not sure if what you're feeling is cardiac? Try the female symptom quiz.
• Age 60–69: Typically 8–18% — intermediate to high range is common even with modest risk factors. Statin therapy discussions become standard at this age.
• Age 70–79: 15–25%+ — high risk is common. Aggressive risk factor management is typically indicated.

These are illustrative ranges — your actual risk depends on your specific values. Use the calculator above for a personalized estimate.

Family History and Heart Attack Risk

Family history of premature heart attack is one of the most clinically significant factors that standard calculators including the PREVENT equations do not fully capture. The 2019 ACC/AHA Primary Prevention Guidelines define a positive family history as a first-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) who experienced a cardiovascular event before age 55 if male or before age 65 if female.

This calculator is unique in explicitly flagging family history in your results. While the PREVENT equation cannot assign a precise numerical risk to family history, the guidelines recommend treating it as a risk-enhancing factor — meaning that if your calculated score is borderline (5–7.5%), a positive family history should push the clinical conversation toward preventive therapy rather than watchful waiting.

If you have a positive family history and your 10-year CHD risk is in the borderline range, your doctor may recommend a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score — a non-invasive CT scan that directly measures plaque in coronary arteries and can definitively clarify whether preventive statin therapy is warranted.

What Increases Heart Attack Risk the Most?

Based on the coefficient magnitudes in the AHA PREVENT CHD model, here is how risk factors rank by their impact on heart attack risk:

• Smoking (strongest modifiable factor) — The smoking coefficient in the male CHD model is 0.928, making it the largest single modifiable predictor. A current smoker's CHD risk is substantially higher than a non-smoker with identical other factors.
• Age — Non-modifiable but the most powerful overall predictor. The log-age coefficient exceeds all other terms in most age groups.
• Non-HDL cholesterol — Strong, modifiable, and directly targeted by statin therapy. Reducing non-HDL by 40 mg/dL (achievable with high-intensity statin) meaningfully lowers the CHD term.
• Systolic blood pressure — Particularly important in the stroke model, but also a significant CHD driver. BP treatment provides additional independent benefit beyond the SBP number itself.
• Diabetes — Adds a fixed increment (coefficient ~0.62 male, ~0.51 female) to the CHD linear predictor regardless of glucose level — reflecting the chronic inflammatory and vascular damage from metabolic disease.
• BMI — Smaller coefficient in the CHD model than in heart failure, but still present. Obesity contributes to CHD partly through its effects on BP, cholesterol, and diabetes risk.

How Is Heart Attack Risk Calculated?

This calculator uses the CHD sub-model from the 2023 AHA PREVENT equations — a Cox proportional hazard model with competing risks. All continuous predictors (age, blood pressure, cholesterol, eGFR, BMI) are entered as natural logarithms, mean-centered at reference values from the derivation cohort (age 55, SBP 130 mmHg, non-HDL 3.5 mmol/L, etc.).

The formula is: Risk = 1 − S₀(t) ^ exp(Σ βᵢ·xᵢ), where S₀(t) is the published baseline survival at 10 or 30 years, and the linear predictor (Σ βᵢ·xᵢ) is the sum of each risk factor multiplied by its published coefficient. The result is a probability expressed as a percentage.

Stroke risk is calculated from a separate PREVENT stroke sub-model using the same inputs but different coefficients — reflecting that blood pressure has a much stronger relative effect on stroke than cholesterol, while cholesterol has a stronger relative effect on CHD than blood pressure. The combined ASCVD Risk displayed is calculated using a competing-risks approximation: ASCVD = 1 − (1 − CHD) × (1 − Stroke).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a high heart attack risk percentage?

Using the PREVENT CHD model, a 10-year risk below 5% is low, 5–7.5% is borderline, 7.5–20% is intermediate, and 20%+ is high. These thresholds parallel the ASCVD categories used in clinical guidelines. Intermediate and high risk typically prompts a discussion about statin therapy and aggressive lifestyle modification.

Does family history of heart attack increase my risk?

Yes — significantly. The 2019 ACC/AHA guidelines list premature ASCVD in a first-degree relative (male <55, female <65) as a risk-enhancing factor that should be weighted alongside your calculated score. If your score is in the borderline range (5–7.5%) and you have a family history, this is the kind of case where a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score test may be recommended to help make the treatment decision.

What is the difference between CHD risk and ASCVD risk?

CHD (coronary heart disease) covers heart attacks only — nonfatal MI and fatal coronary events. ASCVD adds stroke to CHD. Because blood pressure is a stronger driver of stroke than heart attack, two people with the same total ASCVD risk can have very different CHD-to-stroke splits based on their blood pressure profile.

Why does this calculator ask for eGFR?

eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate, a kidney function measure) is a required input in all 2023 AHA PREVENT equations, including the CHD model. Reduced kidney function is an independent risk factor for coronary events, independent of cholesterol or blood pressure. If you don't know your eGFR, ask your doctor or enter 90 (the normal reference value) as a placeholder but get it tested, as it matters.